A prediction market prop firm funds you to trade Yes/No contracts on real-world events, the same kind of markets you see on Polymarket, using the firm’s capital. Pass an evaluation and you keep a share of what you make. If you are new to the instrument itself, start with what prediction markets are. This guide is about passing the evaluation.
New to this kind of account? Read how prediction market prop trading works for the full journey from first trade to first payout, or compare prediction markets vs forex prop trading if you are still choosing a market.
- You trade Yes and No shares that settle at $1 or $0 when an event resolves. Your maximum loss on a position is what you paid.
- The evaluation is built to reward reading many events well, not one big call.
- The per-event profit cap means you need wins across a number of separate events to reach the target.
- The drawdown trails your equity, including open positions, so sizing matters more than picking.
The rules at a glance
These are the TradePath Prediction Markets rules, published before you buy:
| Rule | Assessment | Funded |
|---|---|---|
| Profit target | 10% | None |
| Daily drawdown | 3% (end-of-day equity) | 3% |
| Max drawdown | 6% trailing equity high-water mark | 6% trailing |
| Time limit | 30 days (60 with Double Time) | None |
| Max profit per event | 0.5% of plan size | 0.5% of plan size |
| Opening price range | 20¢ to 80¢ | 20¢ to 80¢ |
| Commission | 1% on opening only | 1% on opening only |
| Account gains | n/a | 75% (90% with add-on) |
| Payouts | n/a | Every 7 days, minimum 2% of starting balance |
The maths of the per-event cap
The max profit per event is the rule that shapes everything else. It caps what you can make across all your positions in a single event at 0.5% of the plan size.
On a $10,000 account, the 10% target is $1,000 and the per-event cap is $50. So even if every event paid you the maximum, you would need at least 20 separate events to pass. In practice, with some losses and some smaller wins, it will be more. That is the design: the rule replaces a consistency requirement by making it impossible to pass on one lucky call.
Build a pipeline of events you understand before you start. A trader who knows politics, a sport or macro well enough to price 30 or 40 events has a real route to the target. A trader looking for one big call does not.
Sizing against a trailing equity drawdown
The 6% max drawdown trails your equity high-water mark, and it includes unrealised P&L. An open position moving against you counts, even if you intend to hold it to resolution.
Because a Yes or No share can go to zero, the cost of a position is the most it can lose. Keep that number small relative to the room between your equity and the floor. Several modest positions across uncorrelated events are far safer than one large one, and they also fit the per-event cap better.
The 20¢ to 80¢ band
New positions can only be opened between 20¢ and 80¢. That rules out buying long shots at 3¢ and near-certainties at 97¢. It pushes you towards markets where there is genuine disagreement, which is where an informed view is actually worth something. Markets must also resolve within 60 days.
Costs and practicalities
- A 1% commission applies to the opening notional. On a $300 position that is $3, which matters on small edges.
- There is no leverage and no shorting. To bet against an outcome, buy the other side.
- No new positions within 3 minutes either side of scheduled news.
- The assessment runs for 30 days, or 60 with the Double Time add-on.
Getting paid once funded
Funded prediction accounts pay every 7 days, with a minimum of 2% of the starting balance. Withdrawals are full: you take all eligible profit, not part of it. Your share is 75%, or 90% with the add-on.
Common questions
What is a prediction market prop firm?
A firm that funds traders to trade Yes/No event contracts with its capital. You pass an evaluation under published rules, then keep a share of the profits from a funded account.
How many events do I need to trade to pass?
On TradePath, the per-event profit cap is 0.5% of the plan size and the target is 10%, so at least 20 events even if every one paid the maximum. Plan for more.
Can an open position breach the account?
Yes. The max drawdown trails equity including unrealised P&L, so an open position moving against you counts towards it.
Trading involves substantial risk. TradePath evaluations and funded accounts are simulated. This guide is general education, not financial advice. Rules can change; the program rules for the product you buy are what apply.